A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
